On the way to New York last week for Affiliate Summit, I was surprised to see this image on the “flight-tracker” screen.  We were supposed to land soon, and we were way off course!

So then I became curious about how many extra miles were added to the trip.

Unfortunately I forgot everything I once knew about solving triangles.  SOHCAHTOA anyone?

It took some googling but I learned the Law of Sines:

So 2546/sin(120) = 2493/sin(B), meaning angle B, up there by Philly, was 57 degrees.

With the sum of the internal angles of every triangle equal to 180, I figured the angle over by SFO was only 3 degrees (180 = 120 + 57 + A).

sin(3) = .052

Solving for a above, I get a distance of 154 miles, which would mean the pilot’s detour added less than 100 miles to the total flight length.

But either I screwed up the math or eyeballed the “given” distances and angle wrong; the real distance between NY and Suffolk VA (approximate location shown) is 309 miles.  Maybe it’s something to do with not taking into account the curvature of the earth?

And after all that it turns out the “flight tracker” map was broken on the plane.  At the time I took that picture, we were really about 200 miles NNE.

-Nick

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Prefer nonstop?

Who doesn’t?  When booking flights, no one ever thinks to themselves, “man I could really go for a layover or two.”  Everyone “prefers” non-stops, which is why it’s silly to put the checkbox that many flight search services do:

I never checked that box before today.  I was afraid that doing so would hide some amazing deal on a connecting flight.  If you’re curious, it doesn’t; it just makes the non-stops show up first in the results list.

So I guess it’s really about value.  Sure, I prefer a non-stop flight, but if I can save serious money by arriving an hour and half later, I’ll be taking the connecting flight.  Some customers will value that hour and half more than others.  Is it worth an $20 to fly direct?  An extra $100? $500?

What else do you “prefer” when flying, that there aren’t checkboxes for?

• Prefer no red-eye flights.
• Prefer no really early morning departures.
• Prefer no middle seats.
• Prefer to fly only the airline where I earn loyalty miles.
• Prefer no checked-bag fees.
• Prefer no TSA groping.
• Prefer to fly first class.
• Prefer only flights with movies.
• Prefer no crying babies.

Except for the TSA groping, (paying extra won’t exempt you from that experience) nearly every preference has a price.

-Nick

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As you’ve seen over the past few posts, airlines are a business I struggle to understand.  There seems to be so much opportunity to make flying a more pleasant experience, make customers happier, and make more money, yet they take the more difficult path at every turn.

Here’s another example of silliness I encountered last week.  A round-trip ticket priced at nearly half the price of a one way.  I couldn’t believe it.  Give double the service, and collect half as much.  There’s a genius business model if I’ve ever seen one.  I had to take screen shots because I knew it had to be a mistake and wouldn’t last long.

The roundtrip SFO –> EWR was $283, a VERY good deal for a cross-country trip.

Now, any rational person would expect the one-way leg SFO –> EWR to be equal to the “Departure Fare” shown: $120.  But as we’ve seen, airlines rarely behave rationally.  The one-way outbound flight booked on it’s own costs $480!

Hmm, the exact same flight, when booked on its own, costs 4x as much.  Why in the world would that be the case?  Why in the world would a one-way ticket twice as much as a round-trip?

It’s crazy town.  And granted this isn’t a common situation, but I can’t think of a single other business that operates this way. Can you imagine:

• A baseball stadium that sells 2 tickets for $50, but a single ticket costs $100?
• A grocery store that sells 2 apples for a $1, but a single apple costs $2?
• A clothing store that sells 2 shirts for $20, but a single shirt costs $40?

I don’t have the answer.  If someone really only wanted the one-way flight, what’s to stop them from buying the round-trip ticket and just not showing up for the flight?  Only in that case the airline loses because they have a seat they could have sold to somebody else.  It makes no sense.

-Nick

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If you want to fly with your dog, it’s not cheap.  On Southwest, it costs $75 each way.  On Alaska Airlines, it costs $100 each way.  This is another example of airline silliness.

Consider:

• When ticket prices for people occupying a real seat are cheaper than the dog fare, you must still pay the full dog fare.  I asked if I could just buy another ticket instead, and completely oblivious to the silliness, the airline rep said, “yes of course, but you’d still have to pay the dog fee, and they would still have to stay under the seat in front of you.”
• Babies under 2 fly free, as long as they don’t occupy another seat.
• Other carry-ons that fit under your seat fly free.
• A pet carrier essentially takes the place of another carry-on, meaning increased revenue opportunity for the airline in checked bag fees.

I’m not suggesting the airline shouldn’t charge anything to let dogs on board, because in doing so they are accepting a certain level of liability, whether it be passenger allergies, annoying barking, or even a vicious shih-tzu attack.  And to a certain extent, customers are willing to pay something for the privilege of transporting their pooch.  But I’m suggesting the airline could actually make more money (if that’s their goal) by reducing their pet fee to, say $25.

Currently the airlines are pricing themselves out of the business.  By agreeing to lower price, they’ll attract more dog customers.  And when you’re selling something that costs you nothing, it’s always best to sell as much of it as you can.  The margins on under-seat storage are incredible!  The pricing should focus on achieving maximum volume, not gouging the few flyers who have no alternative.  Plus you get to make more on checked bag fees as the dog replaces another carry-on.

-Nick

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Airfare pricing is a silly dance. It’s possible to fly across the country and every passenger will have paid a different fare. I know they’ve got the actuaries and statistical models to maximize profitability, but I’m curious how a different pricing structure would work. I propose a different kind of transparency. Instead of customers and airlines playing chicken with each other, what if they offered a predictable, fair price well in advance, and increased in a predictable way as the departure date got closer?

It wouldn’t have to be a screaming deal, but it would give incentive for customers to buy early knowing prices will only go up if they wait. And the airline will sell more tickets earlier on, so they could fill up the plane without a profit-killing fire-sale. Then, if there are still empty seats at truly the last-minute, the company can offer a super-cheap fare to real impulse flyers.

This way, customers can feel confident they’re making a smart decision to hand over the money now, knowing prices will only go up — and not wanting to gamble on true last-minute availability.  With their constant price changes, airlines seem to go out of their way to make customers feel unconfident, and that’s not a great way to do business.  Beyond the assurance they’ll reach their destination safely, people want to feel the got the best deal available to them with the least amount of headache.

Say it goes something like this:

• 4+ months out: $200 – 1/3 of tickets
• 2+ months out: $250 – 1/3 of tickets
• 1+ month out: $300 – 1/3 of tickets
• 2 days out: $100  (Unfortunately for the airline they can’t distinguish between the true last-minute impulse flyer who will buy only if the price is low enough, and the last-minute “emergency” flyer who will buy regardless of price)

The airlines think they can manipulate demand more than they really can. Most people I know have a destination, and then seek out the lowest fare using the online tools available. Nobody is going to wait until the last second to book a ticket in the hopes of an amazing deal if they have somewhere they really need to be. Under my pricing model, these are profitable customers that are willing to pay a good fare in advance. But when the plane is empty and the price is still artificially high, they know they’re getting taken.

It will certainly be a tough model to stick to, like the car dealer who says no-haggle pricing and means it.  But consider other industries using a similar model. Hotels, another business with a limited inventory that goes 100% to waste when unused, often offer discounts for customers who pre-pay in advance. Registration fees for conferences start cheap well in advance, but go up as you get closer to the event. Customers who can plan ahead are better off, and they’re happier. And in general, aren’t companies better off when their customers are happy? Maybe some brave airline will try my experiment.

-Nick

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Seat Maps

Should Airlines show their seat map to customers shopping for tickets?  I’m going to argue they should not.  Not all do (kudos to them), but many have started to show the seat to customers before they buy their tickets.  And what do you think when you see a seat map like this?

When I see this, I reason that the price of the flight is likely to fall.  If 84 out of 116 coach class seats (72%) seats are empty, it seems silly to pay whatever they’re currently asking (unless it’s a limited time screaming deal).  They need to fill the seats, and the current price isn’t getting the job done.

My Suggestion

Of course, the opposite is true if you look at the seat map and the plane is nearly full, but I have a solution that fits for both scenarios.  Instead of showing customers the actual map, airlines could just have a little red note that says, “Only 3 seats remain at this price.“

Could they be lying?  Absolutely, customers would have no way of knowing.  But in either case, it builds a sense of urgency that they should buy now.  I think Zappos does a great job of this, and I doubt they are lying in the way I could totally see an airline.  When you select a color and size combination of a shoe that is running low on inventory, they let you know.

If the plane is still empty, all the airline has to do to stay “honest” is change the price after those “final” seats are sold.  Even a few pennies or a dollar would technically maintain the truth behind “only a few more left at this price.”  Plus, customers understand that airfares can change on a daily or even hourly basis.

When they show the seat map, they’re essentially eating into their own profitability, encouraging customers to wait for the inevitable sale.  It’s a case where too much transparency can be a bad thing.  Well, good for the customer but bad for the airline.  But then the customer isn’t too happy either because they have something they’d like to take care of right away but feel like they risk being punished financially for doing so.  Tomorrow I’ll discuss my pricing proposal for airlines to improve the ticket-buying experience.

-Nick

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After I finish (or give up on) the crossword puzzle in the in-flight magazine, I sometimes like to peruse the SkyMall catalog.  Is there any other publication that can instill an intense pride in American capitalism, while simultaneously making you fear for the future of mankind?

I love the SkyMall catalog, and here are some of my favorite products from my most recent plane trip.

1. Head Spa Massager – $49.95

This Robocop-looking helmet stimulates blood circulation in the scalp, which helps to relieve stress and tension.

2. 8GB Sound-Activated Video Camera Pen – $179.99

Know how in the movies, when the bad guy boldly but privately confesses some heinous crime, and thinks he’s got away with it, but then the good guy shows him he was somehow recording their entire conversation?  Busted!  Well now you can be that good guy.  The spy pen: for all the times that scenario plays out in real life.  The best part is that at press time, the sound-activated video camera pen was sold out.

3. The Slanket – $32.99

Don’t call it a Snuggie when it’s clearly a Slanket.  Just when you thought one brand of poncho blankets had cornered the market.  Even better, a few pages later there was a separate listing for “the world’s first electric blanket with sleeves.”  The possibilities are endless.

4. Litter Kwitter Cat Toilet Training System – $49.99

This miracle product is “award-winning,” “vet recommended,” and includes a step-by-step training DVD.  “Potty train your cat faster than most people can potty train their kids.”

5. Easter Island Moai Monolith Statue – $995

If you’re looking for that last piece to really complete your backyard (or front yard), why not go with the 6 foot faux-stone Moai replica.  Reminds me of the giant Olmec head the Simpsons had in their basement.

6. Harry Potter’s Wand – $35

I like Harry as much as the next guy, but whoever buys this might be disappointed.  I mean everyone knows the wand chooses the wizard — not the other way around.

7. Civilized Butler Awakening Device – $99.95

It’s not an alarm clock because it doesn’t beep at you.  Instead Stephen Fry (the actor who played the famous butler Jeeves) gently awakes you with one of over 100 “charming and amusing” messages.  Here’s an example: “<discreet cough> Good morning madam.  I’m so sorry to disturb you, but it appears to be morning.  Very inconvenient, I agree.  I believe it is the rotation of the earth that is to blame.”  No word on how it handles snoozing.

8. GPS Tracking Key – $199

This tracking device records routes traveled, speed, direction, destinations, and time spent there.  Perfect for keeping tabs on untrustworthy teen drivers or suspicious spouses.  Until they detach it and throw it into the back of a dump truck Jack Bauer-style.

9. Swimsafe Floatsuit – $39.95

And these muscle-bound 3-year-olds still don’t want to get in.

10. Elevated Dog Bed – $21.99

I’ll admit Mochi is a pretty spoiled pooch.  But I’d like to believe he lives a perfectly happy existence without a dog cot.  These pups are cute though.

-Nick

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I thought this was a pretty cool video.  It shows 24 hours worth of global air travel in just over a minute.

Now who wants to be an air traffic controller?

Crazy to see the daytime frenzies over Europe and North America, with much lighter traffic elsewhere.  Fun to recognize some flight patterns like the red-eye flights to Europe or the East coast.

It used to take months to cross the Atlantic.  Now thousands do it each day in just a few hours.

-Nick

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Southwest’s Business Select tickets are a huge ripoff.  Don’t buy them.

On this sample flight from Oakland to Seattle, Business Select tickets are $242, compared with $72 for the “Wanna Get Away” tickets.  That’s 236% more, or $340 more than the cheap ‘web-only” roundtrip fare.  And let’s keep in mind that there is no such thing as First Class on Southwest.

Here are the supposed Business Select benefits Southwest gives in return for their price gouging (and what they’re really worth):

1. Fully Refundable — True, the “Wanna Get Away” fare is not refundable, but if your plans change you can apply the cost of the ticket to a future Southwest flight within 12 months, with zero change fee.  This is only an issue if you will only fly somewhere Southwest flies one time within 12 months.
2. Priority Boarding — There is no First Class, but Southwest will let Business Select customers board first.  Typically the first 15 boarding positions are reserved for Business Select.  If you’re OK with row 5 instead of row 1, I might suggest Southwest’s EarlyBird seating service, where for just $10 each way you can get priority seating.  It won’t move you into the top 15 but it should be a safeguard against the dreaded C-Pass.
3. Fly By Priority Security Lane — I don’t think I’ve waited longer than 15 minutes for security… ever.
4. An Extra .5 Rapid Rewards Credit (per roundtrip) — It takes 16 credits (in theory) to earn a free flight.  On Craigslist, the roundtrip vouchers go for about $300.  If 16 credits is worth $300, it reasons that half a credit would be worth approximately $9.38.
5. Free Premium Drink — What does an airplane cocktail cost, $7?  Alternatively, if you’re a really thirsty yet frugal traveler you can buy books of Southwest drink coupons on eBay for $2-3 per drink.

In total, Business Select costs a premium of $340 (in this example), yet only provides about $45 in tangible benefits.  I think Business Select is an attempt to generate extra cash flow from un-savvy travelers who otherwise might not fly Southwest or who might be fooled into thinking they’ve added Business Class service.  Don’t be one of them.

-Nick

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This year, British Airways awarded 100 Business Opportunity Grants to small and medium sized businesses.  The grants included free business class airfare to London and connecting cities, and $1000 to spend on a hotel stay.

Those Brits are pretty smart.

The grants were awarded to companies looking to meet face-to-face with clients and partners overseas.  The airline is banking on those connections to turn into long-term relationships and for the grant recipients to turn into long-term paying customers.  They even commissioned a Harvard Business Review study to prove the value of face-to-face communications.

It was a smart move by British Airways because their potential upside is far greater than the costs of the program.  They had to build an online system to accept grant applications, hire someone to review them, and find an empty seat on a plane.  And since the plane was already making the flight, and fewer people are flying business class because of the economy, the seat was probably empty anyway.  And the cost to the hotel was negligible assuming they had empty rooms as well, and they’ll get first consideration for any return trips.  If even a small percentage of the winners create long-term business relationships, British will reap the rewards for many years to come.

-Nick

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